In this report we will analyze some results of the top ten finalists of the Automated Trading Championship 2008. From its first day, the current Championship differed from previous ones, because its conduction concurred with the strongest financial turmoil all over the world. We saw so impetuous rises as had never happened before, and so slashing falls, as well as falls of price charts on many currency pairs. This influenced trading results of the top ten finalists.

Currency Pairs

Some currency pairs are considered to be persistently more preferable for currency traders as compared to other pairs. For example, on various trading forums the largest number of discussions is devoted to EURUSD. That is why this pair is considered to be the best studied and the best pair for speculative trades. So, no wonder that The Championship winners usually trade exactly this currency pair. And what about this year?

As seen from the presented table, four Participants of the top ten traded EURGBP, and four more traded GBPJPY. These two currency pairs appeared favorites of the contest. EURUSD and USDJPY that are traditionally among the main mostly traded symbols were actually outsiders; and GBPUSD was not traded by these Participants at all. The top ten of the previous Championship preferred different currency pairs.

Fig. 1. Currency pairs traded by the top ten finalists of the ATC 2007 and the ATC 2008.

Besides, we see from the Table that among the Top Ten there is a multi-currency Expert Advisor of the Participant vam from Luxembourg. He is notable not only for four pairs traded, but also for the largest number of trades executed.

Number of Trades

Number of trades executed on a Participant's contest account by an EA is a good characteristic of a trading strategy implemented in the EA. But if we compare the Top Tens of two Championships, we can draw one more conclusion.

Fig. 2. Number of trades of the top ten Participants of ATC 2007 and ATC 2008.

Figures in the diagram indicated the number of trades executed by the Expert Advisor of each Participant. The activity of EAs has grown since the previous contest. Aggressive strategies aimed at getting small and often profits have come to the fore. However, the first place has been taken by the Participant from Bulgaria Liliput whose Expert Advisor executed only 27 trades on USDJPY to earn about $160,000 for less than three months.

Maximal Drawdown

In the Statistical Report #3 of the previous Championship we analyzed the maximal values of the relative drawdown and that in money terms. The comparison of top ten Participants of two Championships is also interesting.

Fig.3. Maximal drawdown in dollars.

A year ago none of top Participants exceeded the value of $20,000; but this year only abeiks from Latvia managed stay below this value. All other Participants suffered considerable drawdowns. Thus Cronex has the drawdown more than $67,000! This is more than amelabs from the USA has on his account. We can conclude that the top ten participants went through the "roller-coaster" on their way to the finish.

Fig.4. Relative drawdown.

The relative drawdown is also very large - only one Participant's relative drawdown appeared below 40%, while 6 of the top ten Participants have drawdown larger than 60%. A year ago the situation was opposite - only 3 Participants had drawdown more than 40%.

Stability Coefficient

The stability of trading is measured as the ratio of the profit gained and the maximal drawdown experienced during trading. Another generally adopted name of this characteristic is the Recovery Factor.

Fig.5. Stability of EAs: ratio of profit to the maximal drawdown.

We can conclude that the values of this factor do not differ much from values of ATC 2007. As a year ago this parameter of the most Expert Advisor is about 2. Even the PF of Liliput's EA that is on the first place is rather low. Only the EA of one Participant - abeiks - has a large recovery factor.

Conclusions:

• a currency pair selected for trading is of lower importance than a trading method selected for this pair;
  
• Expert Advisors presented in the ATC 2008 trade more aggressively than EAs of the previous Championship;
• the maximal potential profit that can be earned for three months does not depend on the frequency of trades;
• one cannot get large profit without experiencing large absolute and relative drawdown;
• the stability coefficient does not depend on the absolute profit; large profits are leveled by a corresponding drawdown.