Reporting the Tenth Week (1-7 December)
The tenth week of the Championship should be best remembered for a number of events. These events are related both to the Forex price behavior and to some organizational arrangements and the movements of the contest Participants within the list. First, we published the Jury Session Record of the 1st of December 2008 on Monday, the first day of the last contest month. According to the results of the Jury session, Participant strelec was disqualified who had taken the third place a week before. His Expert Advisor traded EURGBP and produced multiple records about trading errors during the ninth week. Second, spreads for some symbols were changed for the purpose of bringing the terms of the Championship in line with the current increased volatility. Increasing the spread for EURGBP by one point, from 3 to 4, was differently accepted by two resting leaders of the last week. While the EA of PrizmaL that makes trades in both directions (buys and sells) fell somehow and lost its speed having tumbled down from the 1st to the 4th place, abeiks seemed not to have noticed any changes in the contest terms and continued eating small profits with the same gusto. As a result, Participant abeiks is welcoming the next, eleventh week being on the first place with $154 455 on his account.
Perhaps, the reason for such a courage is that EURGBP grew practically the whole week. It should be reminded that the EA of Participant abeiks is adjusted on buying only, it has never been noticed to open short positions, although it has already made 538 trades by now. Such breakthroughs of price levels took place for other currency pairs, though, not only for EURGBP. GBPJPY broke through its recently fixed resistance level, too.
Nothing pointed to such a fall of this cross-rate, even the Monday's opening did without a price gap that had become typical for this Championship. However, this currency pair lost over 700 points within the first day of the week, so those who had managed to open positions at the very beginning of the fall were very lucky. Among those having timely sold GBPJPY was Participant Gorez. As of the moment, his EA is keeping three positions opened at 145.90, the profit on which makes over $29 000. as of the time of closing the trading session. Gorez completed the week being on the 3rd place. On Friday, he even grew to the 1st place of the Championship. There was the third currency pair that had a strong movement and that was the reason for such a rapid fall of GBPJPY. This is the rate of Japanese yen to the US dollar. It is the strengthening of the currency of the land of the rising sun that is "guilty" of such rise of Gorez's Equity. However we have a Participant in our TOP 10, that trades this currency pair. It is Liliput from Bulgaria.
In our report about the previous week, we noted: ...the EA of Liliput now holds three profitable USDJPY SELL positions. All
three positions have Take Profit levels set, but targets in them are so
far that the possibility of their hitting is very low.
However, the market was yet more proof that nothing could be predicted, so all those positions were closed during that week with the total profit of over $41 000. This substantial gain in its balance allowed the Liliput's EA to jump from its 6th place directly to the 2nd one. Its Equity was, as of the end of the tenth week, $149 963, so now his positions seem to be more promising than those of Gorez, since only 2 291 US dollars of profit remain unfixed. At the same time, we can see that the total Equity of TOP 10 Participants has not changed within the week and makes $1 055 707. Participant strelec's $138 000 are set off by other Participants.
The gap between the 1st and the 10th place has grown even more and is now making $93 000. We can see amelabs on the ninth place with his unchanged $61 922.24 again. However, we don't see maximich on the 10th place, although we have already got accustomed to that this pair is inseparable due to the difference of only less than $200 between them. Participant maximich himself declared that his EA had gone to sleep up to the end of the Championship and wouldn't trade anymore. What a surprise was it for the author when his EA suddenly opened a SELL position on EURUSD with the maximal volume of 5 lots at 0:00 on the 1st of December 2008! Being glad of such a pleasant awakening, maximich promised to take a place among the TOP 3. However, the opened position is suffering from a drawdown now, so we see another Participant instead of the "usual" maximich. It is FXPro from Russia. We have a feeling of déjà vu when first looking at his Expert Advisor's balance graph.
We have certainly already seen this in some variations somewhere. The periods of accumulating the balance in small portions alternate with dips, then the situation repeats again. Having looked at the Participant's profile, we see that his EA named Furious is attached to the chart of EURGBP M15! Well, if we haven't missed a new call on our stadium: "Participant strelec dropped out of the contest is substituted by Participant FXPro who is now coming onto the field!" His EA has made 988 trades which is normal. However, the EA of this Participant can both buy and sell. Of his 484 SELL positions, over 82% were closed with profits. The things go even better with buying: over 92% of BUY positions were successfully closed with profits. Other indexes are similarly interesting. Sharpe Index is very small: 0.07,. At the same time the Z-score has an enormously large absolute value of -19.26. This means that the probability of that a win is followed by another win is so high that it is just impossible to measure it on the basis of normal distribution. This is confirmed by the maximal series of consecutive profitable trades - 92 wins consecutively. Those 92 wins produced just $27 591, or average $300 per trade, though. We decided to see at what time of the day the EA makes its most trades and whether there are hours when it doesn't trade at all.
As you can see, this EA is less pretentious and trades both at night and in the daytime. In this respect, it differs from all other, previously considered Expert Advisors trading at a smaller time of day, i.e., at night. Besides FXPro, there is another new Participant in the TOP 10. It is adb from Slovenia. His EA has made only 27 trades for the last 2 months, the current value of his Equity being equal to $76 375. This is enough to take the 6th place according to the results of ten weeks. However, its further movement to the top of the table would be much more difficult. This EA is separated by almost $40 000 from the EA of Cronex, the Participant on the 5th place.
The amount of trades made by the EA of this Participant is too small to make any conclusions. It is proved by the fact that the largest profit of $50 079 was obtained in a profitable series consisting of only three trades. It shopuld be noted, though, that the percentage of profitable trades is not very high and makes only 40%,. This is usually typical for trend-following trading systems. Well, that'll be for the review of the tenth week. In the upper lines of the TOP 10, there is a compact group of four Participants, others being too far from them. Let's track the Participants the next, 11th week. We cannot still forecast who is going to be the Winner of the Championship. And this is anything but bad. Created: 2008.12.08 Author: MetaQuotes
selling
2008.12.09 06:53
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The full list of trading operations of all Participants for the 10 weeks of the Championship 2008: