Mini-Review of the Sixth Week of the ChampionshipStatistical Report#1 revealed various information concerning traded currency pairs, such as:
And now it is interesting to see what currency pairs are traded by top ten Participants of the 6th week. We accumulated data about the number of trades and traded symbols and created a separate table:
Four of the top ten Participants trade EURUSD, 3 - EURGBP, 2 - GBPJPY and 1 trades USDJPY. Actually these are 4 of 5 most popular pairs that are preferred by the Championship Participants. However, none of the top ten EAs trades the second most popular pair GBPUSD - this pair is the second most popular according the number of trades and Expert Advisors trading this pair. Perhaps, there is sense in warning beginners of trading such an insidious pair as the pound. The table shows that the smallest number of trades has been executed on GBPJPY and USDJPY. This can be explained by the fact that trades on these symbols were executed mostly by trend and losses were minimal. An indirect proof of this is the high profit-factor of amelabs, Liliput and Gorez. At the same time Participants abeiks, strelec and PrizmaL who trade EURGBP have executed so many trades that they stand out against all others. So, we decided to check if there is any regularity between a traded pair and profit gained. In other words this is an attempt to find out how choosing of a pair influences the possibility of obtaining profit. In Alternative Review of the Fourth Week's Results we found out that by the results of normalized trades EAs trading GBPJPY were dominating. But this was the time of the strong trend. And the sixth week was characterized by flat on all currency pairs. That is why we have analyzed once again all trades executed for the first month and made up the following table:
The result is rather unexpected. First of all, practically on all pairs trading was loss-making. But there were five pairs, on which Participants received profit. These were GBPJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDJPY and EURGBP. Second, we calculated trading results on each pair in points and calculated mathematical expectation in points based on obtained values. And here we met one more surprise. Two currency pairs – EURGBP and USDJPY with negative mathematical expectation in points appeared to have positive expectation in money terms. I.e. we found the fact of a miraculous transformation of a losing trading into a profitable one as the result of adding a money management system. This fact was fully unexpected, because the chance of getting profit having negative mathematical expectation is very low. Also interesting is the fact that expectation on USDCHF was equal to –8.4 points. Thus only 4 points from a negative value of an average trade can be explained by spread. The remaining 4.4 points of losses probably prove the high volatility of this pair. Obtained facts are not final yet. So, we will try to analyze further the results of the Automated Trading Championship 2008and make up such reports. Created: 2008.11.13 Author: Rosh
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