Mini-Review of the Sixth Week of the Championship

Statistical Report#1 revealed various information concerning traded currency pairs, such as:

  • number of Expert Advisors trading each currency pair;
  • number of trades executed on each currency pair;
  • volume of trades executed on each pair in lots.

And now it is interesting to see what currency pairs are traded by top ten Participants of the 6th week. We accumulated data about the number of trades and traded symbols and created a separate table:

# Login Name Country PF Equity Trades Symbols
1 600260 Gorez Russsia 5.00 104 626.35 27 GBPJPY
2 600349 Liliput Bulgaria 4.27 103 933.53 11 USDJPY
3 600067 artall Russia 3.57 98 585.16 60 EURUSD
4 600011 abeiks Latvia 1.97 76 749.98 351 EURGBP
5 600592 strelec Russia 1.83 74 470.02 494 EURGBP
6 600486 PrizmaL Israel 1.42 69 319.00 752 EURGBP
7 600125 Cronex Russia 1.81 69 201.41 103 EURUSD
8 600612 thezen Malaysia 0.00 68 820.00 26 EURUSD
9 600046 amelabs United States 3.59 61 922.24 15 GBPJPY
10 600385 maximich Russia 2.51 61 739.92 95 EURUSD

Four of the top ten Participants trade EURUSD, 3 - EURGBP, 2 - GBPJPY and 1 trades USDJPY. Actually these are 4 of 5 most popular pairs that are preferred by the Championship Participants.

However, none of the top ten EAs trades the second most popular pair GBPUSD - this pair is the second most popular according the number of trades and Expert Advisors trading this pair. Perhaps, there is sense in warning beginners of trading such an insidious pair as the pound.

The table shows that the smallest number of trades has been executed on GBPJPY and USDJPY. This can be explained by the fact that trades on these symbols were executed mostly by trend and losses were minimal. An indirect proof of this is the high profit-factor of amelabs, Liliput and Gorez.

At the same time Participants abeiks, strelec and PrizmaL who trade EURGBP have executed so many trades that they stand out against all others. So, we decided to check if there is any regularity between a traded pair and profit gained.

In other words this is an attempt to find out how choosing of a pair influences the possibility of obtaining profit. In Alternative Review of the Fourth Week's Results we found out that by the results of normalized trades EAs trading GBPJPY were dominating. But this was the time of the strong trend. And the sixth week was characterized by flat on all currency pairs.

That is why we have analyzed once again all trades executed for the first month and made up the following table:

Symbol Trades Lots NetProfit,$ NetProfit, Points ExpectedPayOff, $ ExpectedPayOff, Points Spread, points
EURUSD 26 046 24680.6 -570 039.00 -50 685 -21.89 -1.9 2
GBPUSD 7 706 6585.6 -194 764.00 -8 550 -25.27 -1.1 3
EURGBP 4 345 10377.4 48 866.34 - 2 259 11.25 -0.5 2
USDJPY 1 842 1601.7 11 102.89 -5 317 6.03 -2.9 3
GBPJPY 1 534 1015.3 168 190.90 32 284 109.64 21.0 7
USDCHF 1 460 961.1 -56 588.60 -12 193 -38.76 -8.4 4
EURJPY 1 368 747.2 -129 160.81 -5 371 -94.42 -3.9 3
EURCHF 862 812.9 -5 241.31 -3 117 -6.08 -3.6 3
USDCAD 637 500.8 28 772.62 2 147 45.17 3.4 4
AUDUSD 601 1228.5 4 298.00 869 7.15 1.4 3
GBPCHF 291 207 -19 634.42 -1 905 -67.47 -6.5 7
EURAUD 285 156.4 -32 136.08 -4 628 -112.76 -16.2 10

The result is rather unexpected. First of all, practically on all pairs trading was loss-making. But there were five pairs, on which Participants received profit. These were GBPJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDJPY and EURGBP.

Second, we calculated trading results on each pair in points and calculated mathematical expectation in points based on obtained values. And here we met one more surprise. Two currency pairs – EURGBP and USDJPY with negative mathematical expectation in points appeared to have positive expectation in money terms.

I.e. we found the fact of a miraculous transformation of a losing trading into a profitable one as the result of adding a money management system. This fact was fully unexpected, because the chance of getting profit having negative mathematical expectation is very low.

Also interesting is the fact that expectation on USDCHF was equal to –8.4 points. Thus only 4 points from a negative value of an average trade can be explained by spread. The remaining 4.4 points of losses probably prove the high volatility of this pair.

Obtained facts are not final yet. So, we will try to analyze further the results of the Automated Trading Championship 2008and make up such reports.

Created: 2008.11.13  Author: Rosh
Jury Session Record of the 12th of November 2008

Several more Expert Advisors were discussed on this Jury session.

Reporting the Seventh Week (10-16 November)

This week the top ten has increased almost by $200,000. A half of this sum has been obtained by Expert Advisors of strelec, PrizmaL и abeiks.

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