Reporting the Fourth Week (20-26 October)

Who could think a week ago that a small respite of a trend will be a short and not very significant pause against the background of strong movements of almost all currency pairs? The fourth week of the ATC 2008 was the most explosive one since the Championship start.


Fig. 1. EURUSD chart on a weekly timeframe.

The most popular currency pair EURUSD passed 1000 points during this week and reached levels that we had not seen since 2006. And nobody knows how strong the support of these levels is. So, no wonder that the top ten has changed greatly.

The last-week leader amelabs is only the 7th this week. No, he does not make any mistakes - nothing of that kind. His Expert Advisor does not show any trading activity, it even does not try to trade. But the sum of $61,992 that is still on his account does not allow him get higher than the 7th place. And a week ago it seemed he would long be a leader!

The second best of the previous week waddahattar from Syria is now only on the 465th place. His fall was even more intensive than rise. To take the second place he needed 12 winning trades, but 5 sequential loss trades not only took away all he had earned, but diminished his account till the level lower that the starting one. Now he has only $3,814.


Fig. 2. Balance chart of waddahattar.

The third leader of the previous week thezen from Malaysia continued his series of winning trades. Now his history consists of 24 winning trades, and a week ago there were only 12 such trades. His balance increased almost by 73 % - from $46,928 to $81,050. His balance chart became even straighter. However, by the end of the fourth week he is only on the fourth place.


Fig. 3. Balance chart of thezen.

The situation with Participants' places is the reflection of events that took place in the market during these 5 days - 20-24 October.

The top three has fully changed. The leader is Gorez whose balance is only $38,256, but Equity is equal to $112,191. The reason is three open sell positions of GBPJPY with the volume of 1 lot each.

This currency pair broke all possible support levels and on Friday updated its ten-year minimums. On Friday the fluctuation of GBPJPY exceeded 2000 points. That is why it is no wonder that Gorez's Equity in some moments exceeded $140,000.


Fig. 4. GBPJPY W1 chart with indicated short positions open levels of Gorez.

A yet unknown to us Participant from Russia artall is on the second place now. His Expert Advisor trades EURUSD and has $82,135 on its account.


Fig. 5. Balance chart of artall.

Maximal relative drawdown for his account is equal to 76.69% as of his current Equity. Out of 55 trades only 7 made loss, so his Z-account is equal to -4.84. It means that after a winning trade the chance of having one more winning trade is very high (more than 99%). Other parameters of the EA's trading are also in good ranges. This lets us hope that the participant will stay on the first Championship page till the contest end.

On the third place we see a Participant from Bulgaria Liliput who is a little familiar to us. Let us try to learn him better. His Expert Advisor trades USDJPY and as of today it has executed 7 trades. All they were sell trades, but only 4 of them brought profit.


Fig. 6. Balance chart of Liliput.

We can only guess why this Participant has chosen such a nickname. But his Expert Advisor makes steps far from small and in 7 trades earned $77,180. His maximal relative drawdown was 60.72%. We cannot make other conclusions because of the small number of trades executed.

The total Equity if the top ten as of the 25th of October, 2008 is equal to $697,157 which is almost twice larger than the previous week value of $318,715.

# Login Name Country PF Balance Profit Equity
1 600260 Gorez Russia 30.84 38 256.30 73 934.85 112 191.15
2 600067 artall Russia 3.42 82 135.16 0.00 82 135.16
3 600612 Liliput Bulgaria 5.83 77 179.76 0.00 77 179.76
4 600612 thezen Malaysia 0.00 81 050.00 -6 102.00 74 948.00
5 600125 Cronex Russia 10.66 77 770.41 -6 804.00 70 966.41
6 600051 andee Indonesia 1.87 14 923.30 54 358.34 69 281.64
7 600046 amelabs United States 3.59 61 922.24 0.00 61 922.24
8 600457 pacohernandezg Spain 2.51 50 768.22 0.00 50 768.22
9 600385 maximich Russia 2.13 48 891.92 398.00 49 289.92
10 600437 nickbilak Ukraine 1.39 48 474.00 0.00 48 474.00

The continuing trend still raises high Participants whose Expert Advisors stick to the old principle "Trend is your friend". True, some Participants follow this rule so strictly that they execute trades only in one direction. They cannot be blamed for this, but it would be interesting to see how they trade in pivot moments.

The next, fifth week completes the first month of the Championship. So we will see the results of a third of the path. From the previous contests' experience we know that the leaders of the first month often appear in the final table of winners. Time will show.

Created: 2008.10.27  Author: MetaQuotes
Jury Session Record of the 25th of October 2008

15 Expert Advisors were discussed on the Jury session.
Interview with Andrey Soloviev (solandr)

I think that taking into account the limited number of positions opened chances to win are equal for a simple EA based on 2 moving averages and a complicated neuronet EA.
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