Second Week's Top-Ten Statistics of ATC 2008

We keep our traditions and offer you a small statistical report based on the top-ten Participants' results for the previous week (October 6-10). The report reveals information about 10 leading Participants.

First of all let us see, how many currency pairs are used by the Expert Advisors of leading Participants.

Almost all EAs of the top ten trade one currency pair. Only eniksoft uses three currency pairs. Totally these EAs use 7 pairs, but none of the pairs is more preferable than others.

Fig. 1 Currency pairs traded by the previous week top-ten Participants.

We see, trading was conducted on the main pairs and Yen crosses. Now let us consider the following parameters: the number of trades, profit and Expected Payoff.

Only three Expert Advisors have performed more than 30 trades: adamoliberato, maximich and Raindancer. Consequently, the average profit per a trade - Expected Payoff of these Participants is the smallest.

Fig. 2. Average trade of ATC 2008 as of the 11th of october, 2008.

The results of previous-year Championships showed that winners have a rather small Expected Payoff. For example, the Expected Payoff of the last-year winner Better was equal to 295.28 US dollars. The same value of Rich's EA (ATC 2006 winner) was 503.51. We can suppose that some of the current top-ten Participants will have to suffer losses.

Now let us analyze drawdowns, profit factor and recovery factor of these Participants.

By the end of the second week four Expert Advisors had no loss trades at all. And those who had such trades show very good profit factor (PF) and recovery factor (RF). Remember, the recovery factor is calculated as a ratio of profit obtained to drawdown. Large relative drawdown characterizes the EA of adamoliberato - it is equal to 47%. Usually EAs with such large drawdowns do not remain on the first page till the Championship end.

Surely, we analyzed such values as percent of winning trades, average win and loss.

Percent of winning trades is very optimistic for all Participants listed in the second-week top ten. The smallest ratio of an average winning trade to an average loss trade (AverWin/AverLoss) is that of the Expert Advisor of amelabs - 0.25. This result appeared because on the last day of the second week this Participant had a record loss of one trade - more than $20,000.

Not much time has passed since the Championship start. According to the results obtained we can conclude that none of the current leaders can rest on their laurels. None of the top-ten Expert Advisors shows results, based on which one could make a favorable forecast. However, the volatility of the current market allows supposing that everything can change for our Participants.

Interview with Nikolas Ehrenberg (eniksoft) The idea (I can even say not an idea, but a desire) is to make a fully dynamical system.	Jury Session Record of the 17th of October 2008 The main question of the Jury session was again the disqualification of some Participants.
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