Profit in Points

The profit gained by an Expert can be calculated both in dollars and in points. The most profitable, in points, is Expert of the Participant with nick Rich - 1 094 points. The second place is taken by Expert of AndDan with its profit of 1 048 points. The third place belongs to emil with its profit of 865 points. Experts of ldamiani and Zonker have profits of about 800 points, and Hendrick - about 450 points. It is interesting that equities of ldamiani and Hendrick are almost the same, but their profits in points differ by almost 2 times. This difference occurs because these Experts trade with different amounts of lots. The equity of an Expert that had small profit in points but large volumes of positions can exceed the equity of an Expert having large profit in points but small amount of lots.

Fig. 1. Profit in Points.

Efficient Factor

The Expert’s efficient factor shows how many percents of its possible profit it has really earned. The profit is counted in points. To calculate it, we attach indicator ZigZag onto the chart. Then the sum of differences, in points, between the price peak and the bottom for each line of the indicator is calculated. So this is the profit the Expert could gain selling at the bottom and buying at the peak. In other words, it is the maximal possible profit.

Fig. 2. ZigZag attached to an EURUSD H1 chart.

Potential profit for three most popular currencies on the one-hour chart within the period from the Championship start up to the 7th of December 2006 has made:

• EURUSD - 6 960 points;
• GBPUSD - 10 912 points;
• USDJPY - 7 419 points.

A diagram that shows the Experts’ efficient factors is given in Fig. 3. Experts named Better and GODZILLA are not represented in the diagram as they trade with several currencies at the same time. It was not practical to calculate the efficient factors for these Experts. Rich has the highest efficient factor – 15.7%. The second place is taken by emil with its 12.4%. Efficient factors of ldamiani and Zonker are equal and make about 11.5%, Hendrick`s is 6.1%. The difference in efficient factors between ldamiani and Hendrick at their comparable profits is rather logical: Hendrick’s profit in points is also almost 2 times less than that of ldamiani.

Fig. 3. Efficient Factors

Count of Closed Positions

Many of Participants and visitors of the Championship are interested in information about the amount of Expert Advisors’ closed positions. Expert Better has made the largest amount of trades - 833. This exceeds the count of trades made by resting 24 Expert Advisors together. So this Expert can be classified as “scalper”. The second place is taken by Expert Gomelesose with its 103 trades. Leaders of the Championship, ldamiani and Hendrick, have closed 24 and 32 trades, respectively. The least amount of trades has been made by Expert Advisors developed by Participants Zonker, systrad5, Swing. Their count is 11 trades.

The Championship shows that Experts making large amounts of trades are rarely effective. They can even be losing sometimes.

Fig. 4. Count of Closed Orders.

Position Holding Time Average

Diagram showing the position holding time average of 25 successful Expert Advisors is given in Fig. 5. Weekends were not considered when calculating this index since Experts do not trade during these days. Some relationship between the position holding time average and the efficient factor is found. Thus, Experts’ efficient factor and profit are the higher the longer they hold positions open. And vice versa, if the position holding time average is small, the efficient factor and the profit are not large either usually. Expert GODZILLA has the greatest position holding time average - 114 hours or almost 5 days. Better has the smallest time average - almost 2 hours. As for the Championship leaders, Rich has 50 hours, valvk - 23 hours, ldamiani - 78 hours, Hendrick - 31 hours.

Fig. 5. Position Holding Time Average.

Percentage of Profitable Positions

The best, in terms of this index, is Expert valvk - 96%. The second and the third places are taken by santa (84%) and keltech (83%), respectively. It should be noted that some Expert Advisors’s profitable trades make less than a half of all trades made. Nevertheless, these Experts are rather profitable and are among those 25 most successful Experts of the Championship. They turn to be profitable due to the fact that income of profitable trades exceeds the losses of losing trades. However, it should also be noted that the most of the Championship leaders’ percentage of profitable positions exceeds 50%.

Fig. 6. Percentage of Profitable Trades.

Total Profit and Loss

From Fig. 7 we can see that all the Experts represented have profits that exceed the losses. It is correct since all of them are profitable. However, the ratio between total profit and total loss is different for different Experts. Some Expert’s profits are not very large, but their losses are small, too. Expert named alexgomel belongs to this group, for example. As opposed to them, there are Expert Advisors that traded much and gained rather large total profits. But their losses are very large, too. For example, Expert Better belongs to such Experts. Leaders of the Championship, ldamiani and Hendrick, have total profits of over 40 000 and total losses of about 25 000 dollars. Zonker (leader of the Championship as of the 7th of December) gained about 33 thousand of total profit and lost just 7 thousand dollars. This resulted in that his equity was 36 thousand dollars.

Fig. 7. Expert Advisors’ Total Profits and Total Losses.

Expected Payoff

Expected payoff is the Expert’s average profit per trade. This factor calculation methods are given in the article named "What the Numbers in the Expert Testing Report Mean". Zonker has the largest expected profit - 2 321 dollars. As of the moment, it has made several trades, the most of which have brought significant profits. This is the reason for such high expected profits. The second place is taken by systrad5 with its expected profit of 1 436. The expected profit of ldamiani makes 792, the Hendrick`s - 521 dollars. These indexes are very good for Experts that independently trade under real conditions. The smallest expected profit is calculated for Better. It makes many trades, but the profit of each trade is rather small.

Fig. 8. Expected Profits.

Correction to Statistical Report #3

There was a mistake made in calculation of Experts’ risk levels in "Statistical Report #3" – the risk levels of many Experts were overstated. Please have our apologies for this mistake. Corrected risk level values of 25 most profitable Expert Advisors as of the 20th of November 2006 are given below, in Fig. 9. The risk levels of bvpbvp, BMG, sashken were not calculated as they had not placed Stop Losses for their positions. The riskiest Expert is MAEstro - over 100%. It could have lost its entire deposit even before the Stop Loss triggered. The most cautious Expert is payday - just 8%. Though its profits are rather small, too. The leaders of the Championship, ldamiani and Hendrick, have risk levels of about 20-30%. Valvk`s Expert is more risky - 46%.

Fig. 9. Risk Level of 25 Most Profitable Expert Advisors as of the 20th of November 2006.