Interview with Merab Sturua (Merabiko)

Merab has been trading Forex since 2002. He has gained certain experiences during this time. At the moment, he is managing his own and investors' accounts. He runs a website where he provides services investors. Merab has been learning automated trading since 2004. He holds automated trading to be very helpful in making away with greediness and tiredness.

Merab, are you a professional programmer?
No, I am not a programmer at all. I am a pure ideologist. I generate new ideas for automated trading based on my own experiences in the market and on various experiments with technical analyses and indicators. All my ideas are translated into the clear program code by Maxim Kolesnikov known on http://www.metaquotes.ru/forum/ as Buttler. He is my follower in materials about Forex and he is also my second self, the backbone in programming of all my ideas. I think programming needs very good and delicate knowledge of the market. So two persons have found each other: the one learned MQL4 and the other taught him market fundamentals. Manus manum lavat, but we both make a face.

Does Maxim Kolesnikov participate in the Championship?
No, he does not. He does not need it. Neither him, nor me place our stakes on money. And we would not do it. We have other purposes and tasks. After the Championship Rules had been published, he immediately decided not to participate. Well, I myself was not sure whether I would participate - we had got some commercial offers for some of our programs, though we decided not to accept them at that moment. This is why we do not want to participate just for the prize. However, I decided to look who and how will participate. I was interested what it would be like to approve one of our EAs under absolutely new conditions and an independent environment.

You wrote in one of your posts that automated trading systems would help to free from psychological dependability on trading. What did you mean?
Greediness, avarice, tiredness, human ability to haggle with him or herself - all this harms more than helps. If there is a clear system, a practiced strategy, it is better to spend some time and realize it in a program. Then it is necessary to install a good server with independent power supply and internet connection, and then just visit it from time to time in order to make sure that there are no outages due to power failures.

There are strategies that can work on a 24-hour basis. Who can sit 24 hours through by the monitor? Let the program do it, and we will sleep in the night and work as the day goes on. Well, I myself was the victim of that I had a strategy, a clear plan, but, due to being hard set for money, closed positions too early and lost more than gained. For all your knowledge, facing the market you feel that a half of your knowledge just melts into the air. A program does not think of it and does not doubt - there are tasks, and it completes them. That's all.

Besides, I think a human being should not live for only thoughts of trading. Life is so nice! You should put yourself into the family, into children. Well, you should enjoy your life.

You often say that some people participate in the Championship to get the prize, but others do in order to declare themselves. What are you aimed at when participating in the Championship?
I marvel that organizers wanted one thing but got absolutely another. Instead of becoming a real competition among automated trading systems creators, the Championship turned to be just a pursuit of prizes. The most of Expert writers embark on an extraordinary venture descending to all tricks and ordering ways, using very aggressive plough-back, placing stop orders at very large distances. These are the limits of 200-250 points or no StopLoss at all. This results in that the Championship turned to be something like a chase of heavy money by all means. But these prices and these means have nothing in common with the real market. In the end, the prizes will turn to be in hands of those who act against market rules. The money will be shared among those who can act without any logic, adventurously and very aggressively. I am more than sure that no one being in one's right mind would act this way on Forex. It's alogical and even impossible.

As of now, there are only 3-4 Expert Advisors that are really interesting among those 258 Participants. I mean these few ones are both technically well developed and stable in the market. But only one of them perhaps will get the prize. The other ones, despite of their real value, will be left without prizes. But I am sure: If a potential investor notes these Experts and their owners, I forecast a bright future for the guys.

Automated trading has its future, a very fine future. Just it needs people that are experienced both in the market and in programming.

What would you change in the existing Rules?
If we are interested in getting a real result, the rules must be clear, linear and strict. Approximate rules can be like this: deposit of 10 000, orders up to 3 (including pending). Order volume to be always the same - 1 lot per order and no plough-backs. StopLoss and TakeProfit distances may not coincide. There must be a difference of minimum 5 points. Maximal drawdown to be 6 000, or even 5 000. If the drawdown exceeds the above, the Participant is disqualified at any stage of the Championship. The system with such a drawdown is doomed to failure. Under such conditions, it is really possible to estimate the strength of a program and the vision of its author.

Under such Rules, the organizers would get about 100-150 Participants. But there could be really good programs, noteworthy ones. I would submit such a program, too. As for the present Championship, I submitted a weak, flaw Expert. It has only one plus - stability. Besides, it is linear, without plough-back or any tricks. My opinion about the plough-back is the following: the market goes in 2 directions. And the task is to estimate when to enter and when to leave it. It is this problem which is very important in trading. But there are all 2 000 plough-back forms, not just 2! So what we have? Who uses the most aggressive form is the winner? Or those who place the most volumes? Look, who is on the first page after Friday, the 24th of November? Those who trade exactly in the above way. It means, no offence intended, come-and-go people. They would never dare trade in such a way on the real market. But your goal was to show the world what programs are written to trade in real!

Why do you think your Expert Advisor is below beneath? What would you refine on it?
It belongs to history. I can say the following: If we rate the Experts that I have, this one belongs to the thirds. I would hardly use it to enter the market as I have much better versions. Though, after having recalculated the Championship results according to its Rules, I won't be surprised if I get to the Top Ten. Even in the Top Five, though the market can spring any surprises on. Well, my Expert has not allowed its maximal drawdown of 7100 yet. It is unlikely that it happens since it works on counterbalances: It just does not allow super-profitability or super-losses. It is aimed at stable working! Well, it still needs trailing stop, completed profit fixing when the market turns, etc. MQL4, this powerful tool, allows writing of everything. The most important thing is who writes and how. There are really few good Expert writers. Expert writing standards, inner resources and techniques of writing must be developed.

You write that your Expert Advisor operates on alerts from an embedded indicator. Is this indicator your own development?
No, it is a simple Commodity Channel Index (CCI) with some special settings and special interpreting of its indications and alerts. The idea of how one should trade using this indicator is just developed in our Expert Advisor.

Why have you chosen the ratio of 1:5 for your stop orders? Please tell us about it.
In my personal opinion (proved by the market), an Expert without a StopLoss is explosive for the trader's account. One has to understand what StopLoss is. If it is a distance exceeding 80 points, it is just an assumed border to prevent too large losses. Actually, there are signals to enter in another direction after 80 points. So why to overtime the position and lose the chance to repair the loss? As to the TakeProfit, it is relative in my Expert. ССI allows to gain all 200-250 points in profit for a one-sided market. If such is not expected to be, we close the existing profit when the market turns.

You wrote that your Expert Advisor had allowed a drawdown of 7100 when tested. Is such a drawdown possible during the Championship?
As you can see, it has not happened yet. But, if it happens, I would like to ask for disqualification of my Expert as a shame to its creator. Everything is possible, though, this drawdown, too. It belongs to the future, but who can predict the future? I cannot. It rests with me to stop trading and refine on my EA when it allows a drawdown exceeding the average one. Or I just pass it to the garbage heap of history and find new solutions.

What does the amount of positions opened simultaneously depend on in your Expert Advisor?
My orders work with three different timeframes. If the market always goes in one way, all alerts to enter in this one direction can be received. But, anyway, every order will have its own Stop Loss and Take Profit. Based on my 2.5-year laborious researches in charts, I could note a very simple truth: The market goes in only two directions. It is our task to predict to what direction it will move in each specific situation. It is difficult, of course, to plan the market-move length due to news, comments, etc. But technical analysis and statistics allow creation of something stable, anyway.

You wrote in your comments that you were not going to make your Expert Advisor public. Why?
Why? It is an interesting question... Because it was a base for other, more successful Expert Advisors, people even offered to buy them. If it is demanded, there is a sense in non-making it public. Well, there is no need to open it, actually. If the Championship Rules had demanded to make the code public, it would be another pair of shoes. But only 15 of 258 Participants did it.

What is, in your opinion, the most important when developing an Expert Advisor: analytical tools, implementation, money management, something else?
The most important thing is the logic, the strategy contents. Applicability under all market conditions and a properly written code. Money management is helpful, of course. But only as an idea about how much of the deposit one can lose and how much profit one can expect to gain. If there is a clear idea of to what limits the profit-loss fluctuations can be expected, it is possible to provide the program within a half of an hour with a plough-back method or with a technique that prevents losses of the profits gained.

And what is important in your Expert Advisor?
The only what I am sure of is that there are no programmer's errors in the code. There are some logical defects, yes, but programmatically everything is ok. Maxim has to show for labor. He made everything he was asked for. All errors depend on the broker and the server, but not on the Expert's code.

Will you participate in the next Championship?
If the rules remain the same, no. It resembles ultimate fighting now with only two provisions: no knocking on the head with a stool and no killing. All other means are allowed. The Rules must be clear, plain, linear, protecting from cheating mechanisms. Well, what do we need? We need to show ourselves and to see others, professionals like we are. Those must win who offer the most stable system. These 3 months would be fully enough to check whether the system is stable or not. I am sure you have chosen this time of the year for your Championship not in vain. The market usually makes many surprises at the end of the year. Well, I am waiting for changes to be made in the rules. If the new rules meet my expectations, of course, I will participate! For the Rules as they are now, I do not see myself in the Championship.

Whom do you see on the prize places? Whose Expert Advisors are the best, in your opinion, and why?
I must confess the main thing: whatever happens and whatever are the Championship results, Hendrick is great. He placed a very noteworthy Expert Advisor at this Championship. Whatever coefficients are applied to him, he is one of the best here. Hendrick's Expert Advisor is very good as it is. The fact that it operates with yen is heroic. I would be happy if Hendrick takes a prize place. Aver and Rich have some potential, too. They can complete their Experts to the logical end: correct their attitude towards stops and methods of loss control. Then they will become successful, too. Ldamiani has made something, but his Expert Advisor cannot be really used in the market.

This is my estimate of their Experts' contents and possible development, but not their current balances.

Thank you for the interview and for your original and frank opinion!

Created: 2006.11.30  Author: MetaQuotes Software Corp.
Statistical Report #3

In this statistical report, we analyze 25 of the most profitable Expert Advisors. The analyses are aimed at description of such characteristics of Expert Advisors as risk level and stability.

Disqualification Report

15 Participants of the Championship were disqualified or eliminated. The most frequent reson for this was violation of Clause III.6 of the Rules of the Automated Trading Championship 2006.

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Hello Merabiko,

Respect. That's all I can say about the answers you gave.

As a programmer, and an engineer, i must concur with what you are saying. Let me give a small example . . . if one uses normal technical analysis, and finds out that a bullish trend may be setup for the next three months, one can write a program using MT4 to take long trades at preset values. Such program would NOT DO any analysis, rather it will wait for certain barriers to be broken to take a trade. This is a good strategy to win a competition, but does not fall into the area of automated analysis and trading, this, i would call automatic trading, a script rather than a program that performs preset actions.

Best regards,

Aymen


151
2006.12.04 11:15
Hello Merabiko,

I totally agree with you that the rule should be clear and strict. However I think the "total" order size at any one time should be restricted to 1 lot instead of getting 3 orders of 1 lot each (that will produce the same result as what we have now.). What I mean is that you may have 10 orders of 0.1 lot each or 2 orders of 0.5 lot each or 1 order of 1 lot. This may actually show some strategy that can survive the real market rather than winning the lottery. Or a better way is NOT to restrict on anything at all (no restriction on lot size or order numbers). ....so those people who go large in size will get bust sooner than later.

Wish you go well with your business.
146
2006.12.03 17:31
Deat ZONKER!

If my smile is necessary to you? That I always smiling, only the photo has turned out such though reflects also my serious intentions with the market to trade by rules and precisely following principles - if you you have brought money that should not lose or unchain them thoughtlessly, and to increase stably and with mind.
I wish you a victory, and a prize, but it does not mean, that you by rules of the alive market began to do better, than many other things, you struggled for a prize and can receive this prize, but you not is the best, the best follow you or it is even not visible them as their ways and principles of work with the market of alive money it is absolutely another!

Allways best regards!

Merab
109
2006.12.02 17:20

Why don't traders smile? With the exception of Vixenme, looking back through the news I only see a few cynical half smiles.. ??

I think it is hard to take risk taking out of a competition. You can't get away from the fact that finishing 4th is no better than finishing last. You do what it takes to get too the top or go broke trying, the only real mistake is sitting in the middle of the league table without risking everything!

I fully support the view that the rules should be changed for a new competition. Not only because it might make the trading more realistic, but because otherwise the next competition will be buried in a hundred EA's that are all small variations of Sashken's algorthm and/or clones of some other EA that at some point produced outrageous profits:).

Death to the dollar! GO EURO!!

126
2006.12.02 02:46
Very good comments from Merabiko. However I tend to disagree about the stoploss. In automatic trading environment, we don't have to place stoploss/takeprofit order explicitly. Unlike manual trading, automatic system can monitor the market continuously and send order when the time is right.

Advantage of placing explicit stoploss/takeprofit orders is that they can reduce (but not eliminate) possible slippage when they are triggered, sending orders from automatic system may add slippage due to network delay or loss of order due to network problem.
However by keeping the stoploss position internally computed in the program, we can create various scheme of stoploss without revealing the position to the world. This way we can reduce (if not eliminate) trouble due to occasional price spikes.

69
2006.12.01 12:14
Dear Merabiko,

I readed your interview and i was very interested on what you said, i agree all your words but is sad you did not wanted to participate because the championship rules, on my little trading experience i realized the brokers and market makers sets their own hidden trading rules (an example is to do not allow scalping strategies, etc).

The championship rules limits all us on several ways but is a good oportunity to test ourselfs (in knowladge/expertise/strategy all using a 100% automatic system) with some specific conditions (on this case championship trading rules). Remember the conditions are the same for all the participants.

I hope in the next championship youll be there, with any rules/conditions, us as traders must adapt to market conditions and trading rules.

Congratulations because i liked your interview.

Best Regards
Alejandro Galindo
116
2006.12.01 02:17

Hi Merabiko,


I think that you are a bit too hard on the organizer.

<quote>

The most of Expert writers embark on an extraordinary venture descending to all tricks and ordering ways, using very aggressive plough-back, placing stop orders at very large distances. <quote>

Everyone has the right to choose where they place their stoplosses. I understand that by placing the stoploss 200-250 pips away, they can increase their winning percentage; however, when they are wrong it is a major draw down from them. Look at Sashken with no stoploss and finally the market caught up to him with -26,900 in one loosing trade. I feel that 3 months for the competition is just about right, not too long and not too short. Yes, the contest can be one year, but so what. If it is one year, why can't we make it two years or five years.

I feel that the winners of this contest have demonstrated that his/her strategy work well during the last 3 months, that is all. It does not mean that his strategy will continue to work for the next 3 months. It also does not guarrantee that the winners' strategy work for the last 2 years.

BTW, you used the term plough-back, what do you mean by it?

Trong

154
2006.12.01 00:50