Interview with Karol Przybytkowski (karolp)

Karol is a developer from Canada. Based on standard indicators, Karol's Expert Advisor has been keeping its place among the Top Ten of the Championship for most of the time, and even was in the Top Three.

How does trading stand in Canada?
I have not found many forex brokers here, although, there are quite a few. Such as Questrade or ManFinancial. Unfortunately, I have not found any that use the MetaTrader yet. Questrade, for instance, uses a Java platform, which does not have any automated trading functions except StopLoss or TakeProfit, and also horrible charting system. I do not think that a Java platform can be really reliable... I have had a couple of problems using their system myself. The DEMO, of course. I find that it would be better to open an account in the US with FXDD or Interbank FX since they use MetaTrader. I have not opened any live accounts yet, but I am testing their demos to see which one is more reliable. I guess you can conclude that retail forex is not really well developed around here.

You wrote your Expert Advisor was built on standard indicators. On which namely? And with what parameters?
Well, I would rather not reveal any details about my strategy, but I can tell you that my Expert uses two indicators: Bollinger Bands and Moving Averages. I do not think that the actual parameters are relevant.

You wrote you had started to open positions reversely. Tell us more about it, please.
Well, this is quite interesting indeed, how the markets can be counter intuitive (especially for beginners, I guess). I initially thought of using Bollinger Bands as to detect oversold/overbought conditions and to open a position in the opposite direction (buying oversold and selling overbought). I designed a script to scan through the chart to roughly calculate entry and exit points according to this strategy, and give me the resulting profit/loss with fixed trade size of 1 lot. This experiment resulted in huge losses! So, after half a day coding this script, I got these results and I gave up.

Later that day, I realized that this "strategy" resulted in much greater losses than random trading. Because, if you trade randomly, you will lose on average the amount equal to the spread multiplied by the number of trades. So, at that point I simply reversed my positions to achieve a profit. After that, I wrote up an expert based on that strategy that I later improved and optimized based on the last two years of M1 data. So, if you manage to create a strategy that loses more than the spread on average, it means that you can just reverse it to make it profitable.

I used the Strategy Tester to optimize my expert, but I did not choose the absolute best parameters because I do not think one should fall in the trap of curve fitting past data. What I was looking for were ranges of parameters that gave good results. For example, if using a period of 88 generates the largest profit and lowest drawdown, but using periods of 86 or 90 significantly reduces profit, then I would not use this period.

So, your expert in the Championship is exactly this one, "reversed" one, right?
Basically, yes. But after that initial experiment, I have been working for weeks developing my strategy until the deadline for registration. So, the current version is a much more elaborate strategy based on that original idea, which also incorporates Moving Averages.

In the Expert description, it is stated that it can close positions on its own signals. Could you describe these signals in more details? And why are your losses so insignificant?
Well, it is very sensitive to losses, as you can see. The maximum loss possible would be 25 pips, but I programmed it to "get out" of a trade on the first sign of failure... In other words, it is a lot stricter on entry conditions than exit conditions. However, in the actual competition, two of my losses (and one profit) were cut by execution errors...

In fact, on 19th of October I got an ERR_REQUOTE 138 and earlier in the competition ERR_INVALID_PRICE 129. My expert is not built to handle any errors... It will simply break the loop, print and return if it gets an execution error on an order. These errors could reduce my gains, as well... but so far they have seemed to actually help me.

What do you mean?
Well, my expert was supposed to (for the purpose of the competition) open positions with the maximum leverage up to 15 lots. So at the equity levels I have now, it should have opened 15 lots in 3 orders. Since it seems to have gotten an error on the second one, no more orders were opened.

Do you think these errors can make some troubles for you in the Championship?
It could.... in fact, it has already done on October 6th. It traded 10 lots instead of 12. So far it seems to balance out.

Why did your profit fall lately? How would you explain this?
It is simply because my expert will liquidate on quick reversals. Of course, when I look at today's price now, it should have stayed in the trade, but you never know. It is difficult to predict if you should cut your losses quickly or risk more and wait. I guess it will wait for other opportunities.

The ratio between your Stop Loss and Take Profit is 1:4. For example, Hendrick's ratio is as 2:1. Why did you choose such parameters?
Well, my Stop-Loss is there to cut the losses, but the Take-Profit might not even be reached. It is only there to take advantage of rare occasions when the profit reaches these levels. Otherwise, my expert will be quick to exit at the first sign of a change in direction.

You are putting out good results now. Will you be in the Top Three this week, in your opinion?
Well, my expert does not trade very often so odds are my balance will not change. Unless someone in the top 3 goes down, I will not be there. I am quite confident, though, that I have very good chances to be in the Top Three at the end of this competition.

You wrote that you participated "just to test my expert". As for now, you are almost sure that you will get to the Top Three at the end of the Championship?
Well, this opinion is based on my results with the Strategy Tester.

Have the current results changed your mind?
Well, the current results are very promising. I would say that my opinion is based on the results of my tests and the results I have seen so far of other competitors, a lot of which have quite volatile balances. But, it is too soon to say, I agree. Especially because there are still some competitors out there who have not traded yet.

If you get to the Top Three, what place will you take, in your opinion?
Well, as everyone here, I hope I can get to #1. However, one of my biggest worries is Sashken's expert, which will not quit before getting his 140 pips. Obviously, such a strategy is not recommended for real trading. Nevertheless, he got very lucky from the starting circumstances of the competition (7 MA and 20 MA really close). He seems to trade a maximum of 5 lots, so the more he trades the lower are the odds of him losing all his balance. I suppose that after a month or two, we will have a better idea of everyone's "potential".

I decided to maximize my risk in order to have a better chance at getting to the top. I guess that many participants did the same, because someone is going to get lucky and get a high balance. In order to compete with these people, it is necessary to increase risk. So, it is actually good that you limit the trades to 5 lots. This reduces the "luck factor" quite a bit.

Thank you very much for the interview. We wish you good luck in the Championship.

Created: 2006.10.24  Author: MetaQuotes
Championship Report: Third Week (16 – 23 October)

The results of the third competition week have been summarized. Sashken returns to the Top Three, two debutants show their impressive results. On Thursday, the regular meeting of the Championship Jury took place. The Top Ten Expert Advisors are named in the report, ad well. They increased their total assets by 13 thousand dollars.

Interview with Lingyu Jiang (jianglingyu)

My Expert Advisor tries to catch the main trend of a day. It's based on the famous catfx50 strategy. Sometimes it will use Moving Average cross as the signal. The main indicator is StepMA. It will take 0, 1 or 2 trades a day normally, and has a StopLoss as small as 18 pips. If it wins, it makes 20-100 pips. The theory behind this expert is: "Many a pickle makes a muckle".

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