Judging by the history of your trade operations, your Expert Advisor is highly effective. On what principle is it based?
The Expert is using several signals. First one is the built-in indicator Envelopes. When the close on bar 1 crosses the upper or lower envelope we have our first signal. Second one is 2 OSMA's and the third one 2 SMA's. Signals 2 and 3 are there to support the first one. Fourth signal is the well known Divergence. But the real power is the balanced combination of settings and TimeFrame.
So, your expert uses several indicators to find the entrance point certainly?
Well it's more about the settings for these indicators that do the trick. Let me explain. What I do is what some people call curve-fitting. I know this is'nt very popular, but to my experience it's very useful. I use this very powerful tool Strategy Tester of MetaTrader 4. I do several backward test for the last 6 months (no longer no less) to find the best combination of settings. There should be at least 100 trades, a Maximal Drawdown of less than 10% and of course a substantial Net Profit. Sometimes you stumble upon a combination of settings that are much more profitable than other. These are the settings I'm looking for. I believe that these profitable settings belongs to "patterns" we can't see on a chart. Only by using the power of your PC and the Strategy Tester you are able to "discover" these patterns. I mean repeating patterns that you are looking for when using Technical Analyses on your charts. With TA you can find these repeating patterns from the past. But these patterns only reveal themselves to the eye. With the power of your PC and MetaTrader 4 you can discover what I call the "hidden patterns".
Your Expert places Take Profits at the level of 41-42 points of the current price constantly. Why its 41-42 points? And why don't you use dynamic TP?
To my findings a Take Profit of 42 and a Stop Loss of 84 is the right combination for Phoenix. They are part of what I call the balance between settings, timeframe, Stop Loss and Take Profit. Other people that were testing Phoenix tried to change Take Profit and Stop Loss and got very different results. They somehow changed "The Balance"!
In fact it's the combination of pair, Stop Loss, Take Profit, timeframe and settings that is the most profitable in the last 6 months. When you have found such a combination you may expect that you will get the same results in lets say the coming 4 to 8 weeks. The hardest part is finding the right combination through testing. The Strategy Tester is a very powerful tool but if you don't use it right you will end nowhere. But as it counts for every tool, you have to learn how to use to get the most out if it.
Your expert increases the amount of lots continuously. Can you describe, please, on what principle this is based?
I use Money Management for Phoenix. I've used the one that you can find the MACD Sample Expert when you install MetaTrader 4. When your Balance is increasing this function will increase the amount of lots. And when you have 2 consecutive losses Money Management will decrease the amount of lots. There is a settings Risk for this MM-function. What I did with the Phoenix version for the contest is raised the risk value to a (very) high level. It's only a pity that there are no more lots than 5 per trade is allowed in the Championship.
About losses, Harry. For now your expert works just perfectly. But, in my opinion, there is no way without losses. What losses are acceptable for your expert?
Well in all my testing for this USDJPY I had never had more than 1 loss in a row. I hope this pattern will continue for the coming time. For the rest there is always a SL of 84.
What do you think of the Sashken Expert Advisor? Do you consider it to be a strong rival for yours? Why?
I think he's doing great (Good Luck Sashken!) but an Expert Advisor without a Stop Loss? It's not what I should have chosen for. But on the other hand, look at his Balance!
There is only one step to first place, do you think that your Phoenix will outrun Sashken and take first place?
Well... everything is possible in life, so why not the first place in this contest! I'm going for it!
There are several participants struggling for the first places. Whom of them you consider most serious competitors?
I think Maje is serious participant. And we have to watch Idamiani!
Thank you Harry. Wish you all the best in the Championship.